A pluralistic network of researchers, practitioners and public actors engaged in long-term strategic thinking — beyond disciplines and borders.
Our mission
The PNT was designed to address a profound transformation reshaping the regional and international order — by articulating strategic thinking where it is most needed.
At the crossroads of major transitions — climate, demographic, energy, technological and geopolitical — North African societies face structural challenges that exceed the capacities of purely reactive management. The PNT brings together actors engaged in long-term thinking, equipped to analyze trade-offs, anticipate disruptions and build strategic visions grounded in local realities.
Its role is to structure a rigorous space for dialogue between researchers, practitioners and decision-makers — capable of repoliticizing technical debates and strengthening strategic capacities within societies and institutions.
Our programmes
⚡
Programme 1
Energy Transitions & Industrial Policies
This programme analyzes the dynamics of the energy transition in North Africa at the intersection of climate constraints, development imperatives and geopolitical repositioning. It mobilizes foresight analysis and strategic modeling tools to inform public policy trade-offs — between energy sovereignty, green investment attractiveness and social justice.
🌱 Regional decarbonization
💡 Climate finance
🔋 Hydrogen & renewables
⚖️ Social justice
Programme 1 · In-depth Analysis
Energy Transitions & Industrial Policies
From decarbonization to the reshaping of political orders — the structural challenges transforming North Africa towards 2050.
ProgrammeEnergy & Climate
Reading time14 minutes
CoverageNorth Africa
LanguagesEN · FR · AR
The energy transition and the rise of greening technologies have created both challenges and opportunities for North African countries — threatening hydrocarbon producers while opening new pathways for renewable energy suppliers.
Chapter 01 — Decarbonization
The decarbonization challenge
The energy transition and the rise of 'greening' technologies have created both challenges and opportunities for North African countries. They have certainly put the position of hydrocarbon-producing countries, namely Libya and Algeria, under threat. They have created opportunities for others, namely Morocco and Tunisia, to position themselves among key suppliers on renewable energies for Europe.
However, decarbonization is proving to be critical for these countries as they have to maintain competitiveness and access to the European market in the wake of the EU's upcoming Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, which will place a tariff on carbon-intensive products. This "green protectionism" might prove to be extremely challenging for these countries to upgrade their economies and restructure their political economies.
Therefore, the 2050 near-zero carbon emission agenda will be challenging for regimes, economies and societies. Thinking about the distant future allows reflections on the economic, political, social, and geopolitical complexities of navigating the political landscape, including the possibilities to renegotiate political settlements, rebuild ruling coalitions, reconstruct the social contract, and navigate changing positions in the global order.
Strategic data · Energy transition
CBAM vulnerability by sector
Estimated exposure of North African exports to the EU — risk score (0–100)
🏭Cement & materials
0
⚙️Steel & iron
0
🧪Chemicals & fertilizers
0
⚡Electricity
0
🔋Aluminium
0
🌾Agro-industry
0
Chapter 02 — Climate Change
An existential threat to regional stability
Long sidelined in political, social, and economic discussions, climate change is increasingly becoming a topic of concern in North Africa, the Mediterranean and the Sahel. These regions are facing an array of challenges which will pose a severe and possibly existential threat to existing regimes, destabilize these regions, and which could dramatically restructure relations between citizens and states.
North Africa is highly vulnerable to temperature and precipitation changes, and so the above climate change-induced developments are expected to intensify food insecurity in the region. Warmer and drier climates induced by climate change are set to strongly impact agricultural patterns, and by extension, food sources, as shorter rainfalls and higher temperatures are expected to shorten growing periods, decrease crop yields and crop productivity, and adversely impact livestock production through changes in the length of the grazing season and reduced drinking water.
Countries of the region need massive investments to adapt to climate change. Adaptation is costly, with needs estimated at around 2% of GDP per year for the next decade. But it is far more costly to do nothing. Adaptation also offers employment and growth opportunities. Doing nothing will certainly exacerbate inequalities and conflicts.
2%
of GDP / year adaptation cost
+2.5°C
Expected warming by 2050
30%
Decline in crop yields
90%
Max. food import dependency
It is far more costly to do nothing. Adaptation offers employment and growth opportunities — inaction will certainly exacerbate inequalities and conflicts.
Chapter 03 — Political Economy
Transitioning to open access orders
In North Africa private sector are not autonomous. They are suffering from structural distortions, big business cronyism, and dependence on political connections to secure public procurement contracts, access to finance and opportunities. These limited access orders have been hindering democratization and development.
Military, ruling elites or political forces have played a key role in limiting the access of other social forces to valuable resources — land, labor, and capital — and activities such as trade, markets and public services.
The challenge for these countries is to democratize their economies and to transition to open access orders, where economic opportunities are less dependent on political networks and more grounded in transparent and inclusive rules.
78%
Economic concentration (top 10% of firms)
65%
Dependence on political connections
23%
Open access to domestic market
Chapter 04 — Geoeconomics
The challenge of Slowbalization
After decades of hyper-globalisation, there is a turning point in global trade, with an on-going trend to re-localize production closer to consumption — to reduce CO₂ emissions and to locate in friendly countries to offset new geo-strategic as well as health risks.
In an increasingly fragmented world with declining growth rates, the preference for producing in countries strategically closer to Europe and the GCC can provide North African countries with valuable advantages. Areas with high potential include the tailoring of value chains to consumers preferences, services in high-tech and in culturally intensive areas, and high-value agro-business.
Unless they seize these opportunities and adapt to the reshuffle of value chains, North African countries would end up marginalized and destabilized.
In these times of authoritarianism, economic decay, populist anger and ecological threat, societies are in search for protection. Neoliberalism undermined economic prosperity and failed to address economic inequality and insecurity, which it has exacerbated.
This system failure offers a platform to authoritarian populists in the Global South to portray prosperity as the price of freedom.
The challenge for North African societies is to build accountable political systems, to craft change coalitions, promote equality, transparency and democracy. None of the ecological, economic or social challenges will be addressed without a genuinely democratic and accountable governance.
None of the ecological, economic or social challenges will be addressed without a genuinely democratic and accountable governance.
5
Strategic axes
2050
Net-zero target horizon
6
Countries directly concerned
∞
Interdependencies to map
🌍
Programme 2
🔗
Programme 3
🧠
Programme 4
Topics covered
🌱 Regional decarbonization
💡 Climate finance
🔋 Hydrogen & renewables
⚖️ Social justice
👥 Migration dynamics
🏙️ Urbanization & employment
📊 Demographic foresight
🤝 Social cohesion
🗺️ Regional integration
📦 Value chains
🛡️ Economic sovereignty
🌐 Transition diplomacy
🎯 Decision support
🔭 Foresight & scenarios
📚 Capacity building
🏛️ Institutional reform
Our core values
An intellectual and ethical compass to guide every programme, every dialogue and every publication of the network.