Measuring Transitions to Rebuild Strategy
Towards an agenda of critical indicators for thinking, steering, and politicising the systemic transformations of Southern states.
The current strategic moment is characterised less by an accumulation of crises than by a profound transformation of the structures that shape state trajectories. Countries — particularly those of the Global South — face a more fundamental imperative: thinking and steering systemic transitions.
Moving beyond sectoral approaches, rethinking the state as actor
In a world marked by the weakening of multilateralism, the fragmentation of the global economy, and the rise of transactional logics, countries — particularly those of the South and North Africa — can no longer rely on sectoral or technocratic approaches alone.
In this perspective, the Policy Network for Transitions (PNT) advocates an approach that combines strategic analysis, the politicisation of technical issues, and the reconstruction of anticipatory capacities.
One of the tools in this endeavour consists of identifying a set of structuring dimensions — not as isolated variables, but as fields of interdependence — from which it becomes possible to construct strategic indicators.
Measuring transitions is, in reality, giving ourselves the means to politicise them — and, in so doing, to become agents of our own future once again.
The architecture of contemporary strategic imperatives
Twelve domains now appear central to the recomposition of national trajectories. For each, the construction of specific indices would make it possible not only to measure vulnerabilities, but also to objectify margins of manoeuvre.
Strategic Vulnerability by Domain
Relative score (0–100) — illustration of the PNT analytical framework, North Africa, 2026.
Climate, water, food: the material foundation
The first concerns climate change. Declining rainfall, intensifying droughts, desertification, and the growing reliance on desalination are redefining the material conditions of statehood. The water question constitutes a second dimension: access to water is becoming a structuring factor of stability and sovereignty. Food security is a third axis, in a context where some countries import up to 90% of their food.
Energy, connectivity, defence: the levers of power
The energy transition is redefining international hierarchies based on access to resources, technologies, and value chains. Trade flows and connectivity — ports, airports, digital networks — are becoming decisive. Defence capabilities must now integrate hybrid warfare, drones, and cybersecurity.
Finance, regional integration, industry
Financing conditions the implementation of any transition strategy. Regional integration is becoming a key resilience factor in a fragmented globalisation. The industrial base distinguishes productive economies from mere consumer markets.
Human capital, geopolitics, cohesion
Human capital is being redefined through digitalisation, AI, and migratory dynamics. External political stability incorporates interstate conflicts. Finally, social cohesion raises the central question: to what extent do citizens share a common project?
An architecture, not a technocratic grid
domains
interdependence
dependency
to exist
Taken together, these twelve domains outline an architecture of contemporary strategic imperatives. They demonstrate that the central question is no longer simply one of development, but that of a state's capacity to exist as an actor in an uncertain world.
Constructing indices for each of these domains is not a mere technocratic exercise. It is, on the contrary, a tool in the service of a political ambition: making constraints visible, illuminating trade-offs, and structuring long-term strategic thinking.
From dashboard to strategic reconstruction
It is precisely in this perspective that the PNT positions itself. By developing tools such as the Strategic Dashboard, the aim is not simply to centralise data, but to contribute to the reconstruction of strategic capacity in contexts where states are often confronted with choices lacking a stabilised analytical framework.
Measuring transitions is giving ourselves the means to politicise them — and, in so doing, to become agents of our own future once again.